Publikation:

Inaccurate Politicians : Elected Representatives’ Estimations of Public Opinion in Four Countries

Vorschaubild

Dateien

Walgrave_2-angtj6700z1u1.pdf
Walgrave_2-angtj6700z1u1.pdfGröße: 1.66 MBDownloads: 29

Datum

2023

Autor:innen

Walgrave, Stefaan
Jansen, Arno
Sevenans, Julie
Soontjens, Karolin
Pilet, Jean-Benoit
Brack, Nathalie
Varone, Frédéric
Helfer, Luzia
Vliegenthart, Rens
et al.

Herausgeber:innen

Kontakt

ISSN der Zeitschrift

Electronic ISSN

ISBN

Bibliografische Daten

Verlag

Schriftenreihe

Auflagebezeichnung

URI (zitierfähiger Link)
http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:bsz:352-2-angtj6700z1u1
DOI (zitierfähiger Link)
https://doi.org/10.1086/722042
ArXiv-ID

Internationale Patentnummer

Link zur Lizenz
oops

Angaben zur Forschungsförderung

Projekt

Open Access-Veröffentlichung
Open Access Green

Sammlungen

Politik- und Verwaltungswissenschaft: Publikationen
Core Facility der Universität Konstanz

Gesperrt bis

Titel in einer weiteren Sprache

Publikationstyp
Zeitschriftenartikel
Publikationsstatus
Published

Erschienen in

The Journal of Politics. University of Chicago Press. 2023, 85(1), pp. 209-222. ISSN 0022-3816. eISSN 1468-2508. Available under: doi: 10.1086/722042

Zusammenfassung

Knowledge of what voters prefer is central to several theories of democratic representation and accountability. Despite this, we know little in a comparative sense of how well politicians know citizens’ policy preferences. We present results from a study of 866 politicians in four countries. Politicians were asked to estimate the percentage of public support for various policy proposals. Comparing more than 10,000 estimations with actual levels of public support, we conclude that politicians are quite inaccurate estimators of people’s preferences. They make large errors and even regularly misperceive what a majority of the voters wants. Politicians are hardly better at estimating public preferences than ordinary citizens. They misperceive not only the preferences of the general public but also the preferences of their own partisan electorate. Politicians are not the experts of public opinion we expect them to be.

Zusammenfassung in einer weiteren Sprache

Fachgebiet (DDC)
320 Politik

Schlagwörter

Konferenz

Rezension
undefined / . - undefined, undefined

Forschungsvorhaben

Organisationseinheiten

Zeitschriftenheft

Verknüpfte Datensätze

Zitieren

ISO 690WALGRAVE, Stefaan, Arno JANSEN, Julie SEVENANS, Karolin SOONTJENS, Jean-Benoit PILET, Nathalie BRACK, Frédéric VARONE, Luzia HELFER, Rens VLIEGENTHART, Christian BREUNIG, 2023. Inaccurate Politicians : Elected Representatives’ Estimations of Public Opinion in Four Countries. In: The Journal of Politics. University of Chicago Press. 2023, 85(1), pp. 209-222. ISSN 0022-3816. eISSN 1468-2508. Available under: doi: 10.1086/722042
BibTex
@article{Walgrave2023Inacc-59674,
  year={2023},
  doi={10.1086/722042},
  title={Inaccurate Politicians : Elected Representatives’ Estimations of Public Opinion in Four Countries},
  number={1},
  volume={85},
  issn={0022-3816},
  journal={The Journal of Politics},
  pages={209--222},
  author={Walgrave, Stefaan and Jansen, Arno and Sevenans, Julie and Soontjens, Karolin and Pilet, Jean-Benoit and Brack, Nathalie and Varone, Frédéric and Helfer, Luzia and Vliegenthart, Rens and Breunig, Christian}
}
RDF
<rdf:RDF
    xmlns:dcterms="http://purl.org/dc/terms/"
    xmlns:dc="http://purl.org/dc/elements/1.1/"
    xmlns:rdf="http://www.w3.org/1999/02/22-rdf-syntax-ns#"
    xmlns:bibo="http://purl.org/ontology/bibo/"
    xmlns:dspace="http://digital-repositories.org/ontologies/dspace/0.1.0#"
    xmlns:foaf="http://xmlns.com/foaf/0.1/"
    xmlns:void="http://rdfs.org/ns/void#"
    xmlns:xsd="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema#" > 
  <rdf:Description rdf:about="https://kops.uni-konstanz.de/server/rdf/resource/123456789/59674">
    <dc:contributor>Walgrave, Stefaan</dc:contributor>
    <dc:creator>Pilet, Jean-Benoit</dc:creator>
    <dc:creator>Jansen, Arno</dc:creator>
    <dc:contributor>Varone, Frédéric</dc:contributor>
    <dc:contributor>Pilet, Jean-Benoit</dc:contributor>
    <dc:date rdf:datatype="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema#dateTime">2023-01-11T12:32:08Z</dc:date>
    <dcterms:available rdf:datatype="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema#dateTime">2023-01-11T12:32:08Z</dcterms:available>
    <dc:creator>Walgrave, Stefaan</dc:creator>
    <dc:creator>Helfer, Luzia</dc:creator>
    <dc:creator>Varone, Frédéric</dc:creator>
    <dcterms:hasPart rdf:resource="https://kops.uni-konstanz.de/bitstream/123456789/59674/1/Walgrave_2-angtj6700z1u1.pdf"/>
    <dc:contributor>Breunig, Christian</dc:contributor>
    <dc:contributor>Vliegenthart, Rens</dc:contributor>
    <dspace:hasBitstream rdf:resource="https://kops.uni-konstanz.de/bitstream/123456789/59674/1/Walgrave_2-angtj6700z1u1.pdf"/>
    <dc:contributor>Brack, Nathalie</dc:contributor>
    <dc:contributor>Jansen, Arno</dc:contributor>
    <dc:creator>Brack, Nathalie</dc:creator>
    <dc:contributor>Sevenans, Julie</dc:contributor>
    <bibo:uri rdf:resource="https://kops.uni-konstanz.de/handle/123456789/59674"/>
    <void:sparqlEndpoint rdf:resource="http://localhost/fuseki/dspace/sparql"/>
    <dc:language>eng</dc:language>
    <foaf:homepage rdf:resource="http://localhost:8080/"/>
    <dc:contributor>Helfer, Luzia</dc:contributor>
    <dcterms:title>Inaccurate Politicians : Elected Representatives’ Estimations of Public Opinion in Four Countries</dcterms:title>
    <dspace:isPartOfCollection rdf:resource="https://kops.uni-konstanz.de/server/rdf/resource/123456789/42"/>
    <dc:creator>Vliegenthart, Rens</dc:creator>
    <dcterms:abstract xml:lang="eng">Knowledge of what voters prefer is central to several theories of democratic representation and accountability. Despite this, we know little in a comparative sense of how well politicians know citizens’ policy preferences. We present results from a study of 866 politicians in four countries. Politicians were asked to estimate the percentage of public support for various policy proposals. Comparing more than 10,000 estimations with actual levels of public support, we conclude that politicians are quite inaccurate estimators of people’s preferences. They make large errors and even regularly misperceive what a majority of the voters wants. Politicians are hardly better at estimating public preferences than ordinary citizens. They misperceive not only the preferences of the general public but also the preferences of their own partisan electorate. Politicians are not the experts of public opinion we expect them to be.</dcterms:abstract>
    <dc:contributor>Soontjens, Karolin</dc:contributor>
    <dc:creator>Soontjens, Karolin</dc:creator>
    <dcterms:isPartOf rdf:resource="https://kops.uni-konstanz.de/server/rdf/resource/123456789/42"/>
    <dc:creator>Breunig, Christian</dc:creator>
    <dc:creator>Sevenans, Julie</dc:creator>
    <dcterms:issued>2023</dcterms:issued>
  </rdf:Description>
</rdf:RDF>

Interner Vermerk

xmlui.Submission.submit.DescribeStep.inputForms.label.kops_note_fromSubmitter

Kontakt
URL der Originalveröffentl.

Prüfdatum der URL

Prüfungsdatum der Dissertation

Finanzierungsart

Kommentar zur Publikation

Allianzlizenz
Corresponding Authors der Uni Konstanz vorhanden
Internationale Co-Autor:innen
Universitätsbibliographie
Ja
Begutachtet
Ja
Link zu Forschungsdaten
Beschreibung der Forschungsdaten
https://dataverse.harvard.edu/dataverse/jop
Replication files
Diese Publikation teilen