Kosanic, Aleksandra
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An inclusive future : disabled populations in the context of climate and environmental change
Climate and environmental change impacts are projected to increase, constituting a significant challenge for meeting the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) while disproportionately affecting disabled populations. However, current research lacks knowledge on context-specific impacts of climate and environmental change on disabled populations. We use the environmental justice perspective that emphasises distributional, recognitional, and procedural dimensions regarding disabled populations to understand impacts and adaptation concerns and their implications for achieving the SDGs.
Changes in the geographical distribution of plant species and climatic variables on the West Cornwall peninsula (South West UK)
Recent climate change has had a major impact on biodiversity and has altered the geographical distribution of vascular plant species. This trend is visible globally; however, more local and regional scale research is needed to improve understanding of the patterns of change and to develop appropriate conservation strategies that can minimise cultural, health, and economic losses at finer scales. Here we describe a method to manually geo-reference botanical records from a historical herbarium to track changes in the geographical distributions of plant species in West Cornwall (South West England) using both historical (pre-1900) and contemporary (post-1900) distribution records. We also assess the use of Ellenberg and climate indicator values as markers of responses to climate and environmental change. Using these techniques we detect a loss in 19 plant species, with 6 species losing more than 50% of their previous range. Statistical analysis showed that Ellenberg (light, moisture, nitrogen) and climate indicator values (mean January temperature, mean July temperature and mean precipitation) could be used as environmental change indicators. Significantly higher percentages of area lost were detected in species with lower January temperatures, July temperatures, light, and nitrogen values, as well as higher annual precipitation and moisture values. This study highlights the importance of historical records in examining the changes in plant species' geographical distributions. We present a method for manual geo-referencing of such records, and demonstrate how using Ellenberg and climate indicator values as environmental and climate change indicators can contribute towards directing appropriate conservation strategies.
Climate change and climate change velocity analysis across Germany
Although there are great concerns to what extent current and future climate change impacts biodiversity across different spatial and temporal scales, we still lack a clear information on different climate change metrics across fine spatial scales. Here we present an analysis of climate change and climate change velocity at a local scale (1 × 1 km) across Germany. We focus on seasonal climate variability and velocity and investigate changes in three time periods (1901–2015, 1901–1950 and 1951– 2015) using a novel statistical approach. Our results on climate variability showed the highest trends for the 1951–2015 time period. The strongest (positive/negative) and spatially the most dispersed trends were found for Summer maximum temperature and Summer minimum temperatures. For precipitation the strongest positive trends were most pronounced in the summer (1951–2015) and winter (1901– 2015). Results for climate change velocity showed that almost 90% of temperature velocities were in the range of 0.5 to 3 km/year, whereas all climate velocities for precipitation were within the range of −3.5 to 4.5 km/year. The key results amplify the need for more local and regional scale studies to better understand species individualistic responses to recent climate change and allow for more accurate future projections and conservation strategies.
Regional vegetation change and implications for local conservation : An example from West Cornwall (United Kingdom)
This study tracks local vegetation change in West Cornwall (South West England) within regional context, using historic herbarium (pre-1900) and recent vegetation records (post-1900). The focus centres on species lost from the region over the past century. For this study we used a collection of herbarium records published in 1909 (Davey’s “Flora of Cornwall”) and contemporary records from the “New Atlas of British and Irish Flora” downloaded from the National Biodiversity Network (NBN), online database. Both data sets were spatially analysed using ArcGIS in order to detect local scale species loss. Our results showed that species loss was highest in the south (11 plant species), compared to the loss from middle areas (6 plant species) and in the northern area (8 plant species) of West Cornwall. Results on species change at the local scale were different to the changes that are happening at the national scale. Loss from West Cornwall was detected for two plant species, Mountain Melick (Melica nutans) and Field Eryngo (Eryngium campestare). These key results amplify the importance of local scale research and conservation in order to protect ecosystems functioning, genetic diversity, ecosystem services and regional identity.
Climate concerns and the disabled community
Climate change and the loss of ecosystem services are likely to disproportionately affect the world’s disabled populations by accentuating inequalities and increasing marginalization of the most vulnerable members of society (1, 2). Disabled populations may experience a limited access to knowledge, resources, and services to effectively respond to environmental change (3). Compromised health may make people more vulnerable to extreme climate events, ecosystem services loss, or infectious disease exposure (4), and those with disabilities are more likely to have difficulties during required evacuations or migrations (5, 6).
Present and historical climate variability in South West England
West Cornwall is the most south westerly part of mainland United Kingdom with a strong maritime climate. This paper analyses the earliest archived instrumental meteorological records collected in West Cornwall (SW England). Observations were obtained from the Met Office archive (Camborne 1957–2010; Culdrose 1985–2011), Trengwainton Garden (1940–2010), and from the Royal Cornwall Polytechnic Society, (data for Falmouth (1880–1952) and Helston (1843–1888)). Homogeneity tests were used (Levene and Brown-Forsythe tests) to exclude any trends not related to climate variability. The data exhibit trends in annual mean and maximum temperatures over the timescales analysed, and show a general temperature increase in the 20th and 21st century. Annual and seasonal temperature change was found to vary locally with strongly positive trends in autumn, spring and summer seasons. Trends in precipitation are positive only for the 19th century and only for one station. Correlation with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index gives negative results for precipitation data. However correlation with the NAO index is positive with temperature, especially in the winter season. Return period analysis shows a decrease in intensity and frequency of extreme precipitation events in the post-1975 period (Camborne and Trengwainton Garden stations). Climate change in the 20th century and future continued warming is likely to have major implications on biodiversity in this region.