Kosanic, Aleksandra


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Climate change and climate change velocity analysis across Germany

2019-12, Kosanic, Aleksandra, Kavcic, Iva, van Kleunen, Mark, Harrison, Stephan

Although there are great concerns to what extent current and future climate change impacts biodiversity across different spatial and temporal scales, we still lack a clear information on different climate change metrics across fine spatial scales. Here we present an analysis of climate change and climate change velocity at a local scale (1 × 1 km) across Germany. We focus on seasonal climate variability and velocity and investigate changes in three time periods (1901–2015, 1901–1950 and 1951– 2015) using a novel statistical approach. Our results on climate variability showed the highest trends for the 1951–2015 time period. The strongest (positive/negative) and spatially the most dispersed trends were found for Summer maximum temperature and Summer minimum temperatures. For precipitation the strongest positive trends were most pronounced in the summer (1951–2015) and winter (1901– 2015). Results for climate change velocity showed that almost 90% of temperature velocities were in the range of 0.5 to 3 km/year, whereas all climate velocities for precipitation were within the range of −3.5 to 4.5 km/year. The key results amplify the need for more local and regional scale studies to better understand species individualistic responses to recent climate change and allow for more accurate future projections and conservation strategies.

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Present and historical climate variability in South West England

2014-05, Kosanic, Aleksandra, Harrison, Stephan, Anderson, Karen, Kavcic, Iva

West Cornwall is the most south westerly part of mainland United Kingdom with a strong maritime climate. This paper analyses the earliest archived instrumental meteorological records collected in West Cornwall (SW England). Observations were obtained from the Met Office archive (Camborne 1957–2010; Culdrose 1985–2011), Trengwainton Garden (1940–2010), and from the Royal Cornwall Polytechnic Society, (data for Falmouth (1880–1952) and Helston (1843–1888)). Homogeneity tests were used (Levene and Brown-Forsythe tests) to exclude any trends not related to climate variability. The data exhibit trends in annual mean and maximum temperatures over the timescales analysed, and show a general temperature increase in the 20th and 21st century. Annual and seasonal temperature change was found to vary locally with strongly positive trends in autumn, spring and summer seasons. Trends in precipitation are positive only for the 19th century and only for one station. Correlation with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index gives negative results for precipitation data. However correlation with the NAO index is positive with temperature, especially in the winter season. Return period analysis shows a decrease in intensity and frequency of extreme precipitation events in the post-1975 period (Camborne and Trengwainton Garden stations). Climate change in the 20th century and future continued warming is likely to have major implications on biodiversity in this region.