Kosanic, Aleksandra

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Kosanic
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Aleksandra
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Climate change and climate change velocity analysis across Germany

2019-12, Kosanic, Aleksandra, Kavcic, Iva, van Kleunen, Mark, Harrison, Stephan

Although there are great concerns to what extent current and future climate change impacts biodiversity across different spatial and temporal scales, we still lack a clear information on different climate change metrics across fine spatial scales. Here we present an analysis of climate change and climate change velocity at a local scale (1 × 1 km) across Germany. We focus on seasonal climate variability and velocity and investigate changes in three time periods (1901–2015, 1901–1950 and 1951– 2015) using a novel statistical approach. Our results on climate variability showed the highest trends for the 1951–2015 time period. The strongest (positive/negative) and spatially the most dispersed trends were found for Summer maximum temperature and Summer minimum temperatures. For precipitation the strongest positive trends were most pronounced in the summer (1951–2015) and winter (1901– 2015). Results for climate change velocity showed that almost 90% of temperature velocities were in the range of 0.5 to 3 km/year, whereas all climate velocities for precipitation were within the range of −3.5 to 4.5 km/year. The key results amplify the need for more local and regional scale studies to better understand species individualistic responses to recent climate change and allow for more accurate future projections and conservation strategies.