Shikano, Susumu

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Shikano
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Susumu
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Administrative delegation revisited : Experimental evidence on the behavioural consequences of public service motivation and risk aversion

2023, Tepe, Markus, Shikano, Susumu, Jankowski, Michael, Lutz, Maximilian

Getting a grip on issues of administrative delegation is key to the performance of public organizations. The oversight game models delegation as a conflict of interest between an inspector and an inspectee to act in the interests of the former. This study tests alternative solutions to overcome ‘shirking’ in the oversight game. Specifically, we test the effect of external incentives, as implied by the game-theoretical solution, against the role of intrinsic factors, namely, public service motivation and job-related risk aversion. Evidence from a laboratory (N = 208) and survey experiment (N = 794) show that both the game-theoretical approach, which inspired new public management, and public service motivation, as its antithesis, fail to explain subjects’ behaviour. Instead, job-related risk aversion makes oversight more and ‘shirking’ less likely. This finding hints towards a more differentiated view of public employees’ risk attitudes to improve administrative delegation.

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Repeated Response versus Strategy Method : Experimental Evidence from an Oversight Game

2022, Lutz, Maximilian, Shikano, Susumu, Tepe, Markus

Existing laboratory research suggests that the Nash equilibrium in mixed strategies has limited capacity to predict subjects’ behavior in an Oversight Game (OG). We propose that this inconsistency between the game-theoretical solution and subjects’ actual behavior may be due to the elicitation method used in previous laboratory experiments. To test this conjecture, we design a laboratory experiment in which subjects play the OG either using the conventional repeated response method, in which subjects are informed of their opponent’s action after each period, or using a novel strategy method, in which subjects choose their mixed strategy and let the computer randomize. Comparing the elicitation methods shows that it has no effect on subjects’ decisions in the OG, regardless of whether the repeated response or strategy method has been implemented. Under both conditions, subjects uniformly deviate from the Nash equilibrium in mixed strategy.

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Understanding the Relationship Between Official and Social Information About Infectious Disease : Experimental Analysis

2021, Assaf, Elias, Bond, Robert M., Cranmer, Skyler J., Kaizar, Eloise E., Ratliff Santoro, Lauren, Shikano, Susumu, Sivakoff, David J.

Background: Communicating official public health information about infectious diseases is complicated by the fact that individuals receive much of their information from their social contacts, either via interpersonal interaction or social media, which can be prone to bias and misconception.

Objective: This study aims to evaluate the effect of public health campaigns and the effect of socially communicated health information on learning about diseases simultaneously. Although extant literature addresses the effect of one source of information (official or social) or the other, it has not addressed the simultaneous interaction of official information (OI) and social information (SI) in an experimental setting.

Methods: We used a series of experiments that exposed participants to both OI and structured SI about the symptoms and spread of hepatitis C over a series of 10 rounds of computer-based interactions. Participants were randomly assigned to receive a high, low, or control intensity of OI and to receive accurate or inaccurate SI about the disease.

Results: A total of 195 participants consented to participate in the study. Of these respondents, 186 had complete responses across all ten experimental rounds, which corresponds to a 4.6% (9/195) nonresponse rate. The OI high intensity treatment increases learning over the control condition for all symptom and contagion questions when individuals have lower levels of baseline knowledge (all P values ≤.04). The accurate SI condition increased learning across experimental rounds over the inaccurate condition (all P values ≤.01). We find limited evidence of an interaction between official and SI about infectious diseases.

Conclusions: This project demonstrates that exposure to official public health information increases individuals’ knowledge of the spread and symptoms of a disease. Socially shared information also facilitates the learning of accurate and inaccurate information, though to a lesser extent than exposure to OI. Although the effect of OI persists, preliminary results suggest that it can be degraded by persistent contradictory SI over time.

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Hypothesis Testing in the Bayesian Framework

2019-11-06, Shikano, Susumu

While the Bayesian parameter estimation has gained a wider acknowledgement among political scientists, they seem to have less discussed the Bayesian version of hypothesis testing. This paper introduces two Bayesian approaches to hypothesis testing: one based on estimated posterior distributions and the other based on Bayes factors. By using an example based on a linear regression model, I demonstrate similarities and differences not only between the null‐hypothesis significance tests and Bayesian hypothesis tests, but also those among two different Bayesian approaches, which are also critically discussed.

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Anti-Establishment-Politik und die Wandlung des deutschen Parteienraums

2023, Nyhuis, Dominic, König, Pascal D., Münchow, Felix, Shikano, Susumu

Mit der Flüchtlings- sowie der Wirtschafts- und Finanzkrise haben zwei Themen die deutsche Politik der vergangenen Jahre dominiert. Beide haben wesentlich zur Gründung der AfD beigetragen, die 2017 als erste rechtspopulistische Partei in den Deutschen Bundestag einziehen konnte. Aufgrund dieser Neugründung bietet sich der deutsche Fall an, um den Einfluss von rechtspopulistischen Parteien auf politische Konflikträume zu beleuchten. Auf der Grundlage von Daten aus sieben Online-Wahlhilfen untersuchen wir in diesem Beitrag die politischen Konflikträume zu den Bundestagswahlen 2013 und 2017 mithilfe von Item-Response-Modellen. Zur Bundestagswahl 2013 deuten die Ergebnisse eine klar eindimensionale Parteienanordnung an, die der konventionellen Links-Rechts-Achse entspricht. Die Struktur zur Bundestagswahl 2017 weist demgegenüber deutliche Veränderungen auf und lässt neben einer allgemeinen Links-Rechts-Achse auch eine Anti-Establishment-Dimension erkennen, auf der sich Die Linke und vor allem die AfD von den restlichen Parteien abheben.

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Do campaign posters trigger voting based on looks? : Probing an explanation for why good-looking candidates win more votes

2021-07, Herrmann, Michael, Shikano, Susumu

Numerous studies document that better-looking candidates win more votes. Yet the causal mechanisms leading to this advantage remain unexplored. We consider for the first time a potential trigger of the looks–vote association that has previously been suggested but not tested in the literature: exposure to campaign posters of the candidates. We test this explanation with German election survey data, which we augment with ratings—provided by MTurk workers from the U.S.—of the attractiveness and facial competence of about 1,000 district candidates. Confirming previous studies on Germany, we find that attractiveness is positively associated with candidate vote share (1.2 ppts. min–max). At the voter level, we find tentative evidence for the idea that the association is moderated by exposure to campaign posters: effects are in the expected directions and their sizes consistent with what we observe at the candidate level, but we cannot always reject the null hypothesis of no effect. In contrast to attractiveness, we do not find conclusive evidence for an effect of facial competence in the election considered. These preliminary results suggest that inundating voters with candidate posters, as in elections in Germany and many other places, might be a reason for voting based on looks.

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Rejoinder to Daniel Stegmueller's Comments

2021-01, Elff, Martin, Heisig, Jan Paul, Schaeffer, Merlin, Shikano, Susumu

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Left-Right radicalism and Populist attitudes in France and Spain

2022-09, Marcos-Marne, Hugo, Llamazares, Ivan, Shikano, Susumu

There is little doubt that supply-side populism associates with radical platforms of the left and the right. However, few empirical analyses have focused on the connection between left-right ideological radicalism and populism at the individual level, even less in countries where populist discourses are not only associated with the radical right. This paper considers the association between populist attitudes and ideological radicalism in two countries where left-wing populist parties exist: France and Spain. For that, it uses an approach to political ideology that distinguishes political-economic issues and political-cultural ones. Main results show that radically minded individuals, located at the left and the right of the ideological axis, display stronger populist attitudes in France and Spain. However, differences between the two countries exist that highlight the relevance of context-dependent associations between populism and other (thick) ideologies in the electoral arena. In France, individuals located at the extreme right of the cultural dimension tend to show stronger populist attitudes than those located at the far left. In contrast, in Spain, individuals located at the extreme left of the economic and cultural dimensions display stronger populist attitudes.

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Multilevel Analysis with Few Clusters : Improving Likelihood-Based Methods to Provide Unbiased Estimates and Accurate Inference

2021-01, Elff, Martin, Heisig, Jan Paul, Schaeffer, Merlin, Shikano, Susumu

Quantitative comparative social scientists have long worried about the performance of multilevel models when the number of upper-level units is small. Adding to these concerns, an influential Monte Carlo study by Stegmueller (2013) suggests that standard maximum-likelihood (ML) methods yield biased point estimates and severely anti-conservative inference with few upper-level units. In this article, the authors seek to rectify this negative assessment. First, they show that ML estimators of coefficients are unbiased in linear multilevel models. The apparent bias in coefficient estimates found by Stegmueller can be attributed to Monte Carlo Error and a flaw in the design of his simulation study. Secondly, they demonstrate how inferential problems can be overcome by using restricted ML estimators for variance parameters and a t-distribution with appropriate degrees of freedom for statistical inference. Thus, accurate multilevel analysis is possible within the framework that most practitioners are familiar with, even if there are only a few upper-level units.

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The effect of incumbency on ideological and valence perceptions of parties in multilevel polities

2019-12, Shikano, Susumu, Nyhuis, Dominic

A number of studies recently have investigated party position-taking in multilevel polities. Given the attempts of federally organized parties to tailor their messages to their audiences, we investigate the voter side of the equation: Are voters sufficiently politically sophisticated to pick up on highly differentiated policy signals? Following common conceptions of political preferences, we argue that citizens have a heuristic view of party competition that is shaped by ideological and valence factors, where the latter are much less challenging to process than the former. Accordingly, citizens are able to differentiate only between the national and the regional party on the valence dimension. We argue that a valence delta between different party branches is most likely to be perceived in contexts of high media exposure, particularly when parties are in government. Results from an analysis of survey data covering 21 German state-level elections support those expectations.